Extraterrestrial Whispers Hit Earth
NASA’s James Webb Telescope has just opened the door to the tantalizing possibility of extraterrestrial life – a discovery met with a wide mixture of skepticism and excitement and going far beyond the scientific community. Though confirmation is still a long way off, the idea of life beyond our planet has incredible ramifications that go far beyond astrophysics – it entails a paradigm shift that has unpredicted ramifications for our intellectual underpinnings and earthly economic systems.
For thousands of years, humans have gazed up at the stars and posed to them the simplest question: are we alone? The size of the universe suggests otherwise, a mathematical probability that has fueled centuries of scientific inquiry and science fiction fantasy. Now, with the aid of the amazing capabilities of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), (which NASA terms ‘the largest, most powerful and most complex telescope ever launched into space’) that age-old query has made a potentially earth-shaking step closer to being answered.
The earth-like compounds found in exoplanet K2-18b’s atmosphere by a group of scientists under Nikku Madhusudhan at the University of Cambridge are the strongest-ever evidence of the presence of life beyond our planet, naturally sparking vociferous debate in the global scientific community, particularly pertaining to the analysis of spectrum data and the required statistical significance to be sure of the monumental discovery.
3-sigma vs 5-sigma
The scientists used the JWST to study the atmosphere of the planet orbiting a faint red star approximately 125 light-years from earth within the habitable zone of its star – the area in which liquid water might be able to exist on the surface. What they discovered were the ‘chemical fingerprints’ of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and/or dimethyl disulfide (DMDS), compounds which on earth are most notably formed through biological activity, mainly through marine algae and other tiny creatures in oceans. These sulfur compounds’ concentration looks to be markedly higher on K2-18b than it is on our planet, ‘thousands of times stronger’. This caused the research team to speculate that K2-18b could be a ‘hycean world’ – a planet with an ocean of liquid water under a hydrogen-rich atmosphere, possibly ‘teeming with life’.
Before we begin incorporating intergalactic trade routes into our GDP estimates, a healthy dose of skepticism is in order, and fortunately, the scientific community is delivering it in swathes. As the saying goes, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence and the present findings, promising as they are, have yet to reach that level.
The presence of DMS/DMDS is found at a ‘3-sigma level of statistical significance,’ which means there remains a 0.3 percent chance that the signal would be coincidence. In science, the gold standard would require a 5-sigma level, cutting the likelihood of a freak occurrence to less than a million to one.
Additionally and perhaps most crucially of all, there is still no conclusive evidence linking these chemicals to life. While the listed compounds are mostly biological on earth, they could possibly be produced by unknown, non-biological chemical processes on a planet as different as the exoplanet. As several planetary scientists have aptly stated, what we have so far is probably nothing more than a hint and not conclusive enough to say the exoplanet is habitable. This wouldn’t be the first time either, there have been several such encouraging instances in the past of exoplanet hunting that ultimately turned out to have less romantic explanations, such as the earlier incorrect identification of water vapor for methane in the atmosphere of K2-18b based on Hubble data.
Astronomical Ramifications
Despite the caveats, the ramifications of being able to detect possible biosignatures in a habitable exoplanet are of – forgive the pun – astronomical significance.
The sheer global philosophical shockwave itself would be enormous. The idea of life having originated elsewhere would fundamentally alter our understanding of our position in the universe fundamentally, resulting in a deep re-think of our values, our priorities and indeed our worldview as a whole. Think of the potential effect on religious and ethical systems, many of which exclusively rely on the uniqueness of life on earth.
Economically, the implications, while potentially much more longer-term, would be no less profound. Consider the reallocation of research dollars worldwide. The quest for extraterrestrial life, already an expanding field, would undoubtedly experience a manifold-exponential growth in investment. This could drive innovation in such areas as space travel, remote sensing technology and even new branches of biology and chemistry as we try to comprehend alien life forms.
In addition, the finding of even microbial life elsewhere may spur a new wave of resource hunting and ethical debate. Would we be entitled to engage with, much less exploit, alien ecosystems? And how exactly do we do it, given it’s some 125 light-years away? There are several extremely difficult ethical questions that would have to be answered on an international scale, perhaps leading to new global regulations and treaties that would have a major impact on resource management and trade.
Also consider the possibilities of new industries and economic development. The creation of technologies to research and possibly communicate with extraterrestrial life could give rise to whole new industries. Consider specialized equipment, interstellar spacecraft (no matter how distant that might be) and even the philosophical and ethical consulting firms required to navigate this new frontier. ET-McKinsey, anyone?
Of course, the timeline for any of these large economic changes is extremely uncertain. It’s essential to refrain from making premature claims and rely on solid scientific proof. As Madhusudhan himself stressed, ‘It is in no one’s interest to claim prematurely that we have detected life’. The journey from a promising biosignature to verified extraterrestrial life is a long and laborious one, fraught with the possibility of traps and the requirement for careful confirmation.
However, the simple fact that we now have the technological capability, through means such as the JWST, to even perceive these faint murmurs from light-years away is an enormous leap on our journey as scientists. It represents a sea change in how we are capable of pursuing the possibility for life outside our own planet.
As Madhusudhan optimistically put it, “Decades from now, we may look back at this point in time and recognise it was when the living universe came within reach.”