The Race for Quantum Leadership Accelerates: IBM and IonQ Set Sights on Fault-Tolerant Computing Supremacy

Over half of global business leaders plan to adopt quantum computing, anticipating disruptive breakthroughs in optimization and efficiency. IBM and IonQ are racing to deliver large-scale, fault-tolerant machines, targeting milestones that could redefine drug discovery, supply chain management, and more. AstraZeneca’s record-shattering collaboration slashed drug development simulation times from months to days, proving quantum’s real-world impact and igniting industry momentum.

• Business leaders feel classical computing has hit a plateau—81% say current optimization tech can’t unlock further gains, driving investment toward quantum solutions for logistics, manufacturing, and design.

• AstraZeneca’s quantum-powered drug discovery partnership with IonQ, AWS, and NVIDIA reduced R&D simulation time by 20X, showcasing chemical accuracy with error margins under 1 kcal/mol—setting a new benchmark in pharmaceutical innovation.

• The quantum race intensifies: IBM targets a fault-tolerant system with 200 logical qubits by 2029, while IonQ aims for a breakthrough 80,000 logical qubits by 2030, supported by its $1.1B acquisition of Oxford Ionics and bold revenue forecasts.

Over half of 400 global business leaders (55%) are planning to build quantum computing into their workflows, according to a survey by Wakefield Research on behalf of D-Wave, a leading quantum computing company, that has delivered solutions on this technology to clients across the world. IBM unveiled its path to build the world’s first large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer, setting the stage for practical and scalable quantum computing.Delivered by 2029, IBM Quantum Starling will be built in a new IBM Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York and is expected to perform 20,000 times more operations than today’s quantum computers.

Practical case studies are proving the quantum advantage. AstraZeneca’s collaboration with IonQ, AWS, and NVIDIA represents a groundbreaking integration of quantum computing into pharmaceutical research. The use of this technology has dramatically reduced drug discovery times by 20X. Simulation time reduced from ~6 months (classical HPC) to ~9 days and achieved chemical accuracy (error margins < 1 kcal/mol).

Quantum computing promises speed and efficiency beyond even our most powerful supercomputers. The Wakefield survey reveals that business leaders are struggling to optimize areas like logistics, scheduling, and design and are looking at quantum computing to provide solutions. The vast majority (81%) believe they’ve reached the limit of the benefits they can achieve through optimization solutions running on classical computers.

Quantum computers could provide faster, higher quality solutions to address computationally complex business problems, such as streamlining supply chains and optimizing manufacturing processes. Most (88%) believe their company would go above and beyond for even a 5% improvement in optimization, according to a survey of 400 business leaders and logistics and operations decision makers conducted by Wakefield Research on .

But there are barriers preventing companies from improving optimization capabilities. Organizations surveyed aren’t realizing this potential because they lean on outdated technology (39%), have budgetary restrictions (38%), and rely on classical optimization that runs on conventional computers (36%). For the vast majority (87%), complacency is getting in the way of innovation. Yet close to a quarter of surveyed leaders (22%) already see quantum making a huge impact for those who have adopted it, while another 50% anticipate it will be disruptive for their industry.

Among those who have not yet implemented quantum optimization, 31% expect to roll it out within the next two years. The majority of those who have invested, or plan to within the next two years (72%), anticipate a return of at least $1 million.

“IBM is charting the next frontier in quantum computing,” said Arvind Krishna, Chairman and CEO, IBM. “Our expertise across mathematics, physics, and engineering is paving the way for a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer — one that will solve real-world challenges and unlock immense possibilities for business.”

A large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer with hundreds or thousands of logical qubits could run hundreds of millions to billions of operations, which could accelerate time and cost efficiencies in fields such as drug development, materials discovery, chemistry, and optimization.Starling will be able to access the computational power required for these problems by running 100 million quantum operations using 200 logical qubits. It will be the foundation for IBM Quantum Blue Jay, which will be capable of executing 1 billion quantum operations over 2,000 logical qubits.

The race for quantum supremacy is heating up. IonQ wants to become the Nvidia of quantum. The company’s goal? Build a fault-tolerant quantum machine with 80,000 logical and 2 million physical qubits by 2030years ahead of IBM’s 100,000-qubit target slated for 2033.

Just recently IonQ  signed a $1.1 billion all-stock deal to acquire Oxford Ionics a UK quantum computing startup spun out of Oxford Universit. Oxford Ionics’ low-error ion-trap architecture could be the missing piece that helps IonQ leapfrog competitors. The combined platform is already drawing serious commercial interest, with clients ranging from AstraZeneca to Airbus to the U.S.-backed Oak Ridge National Lab. For 2025, IonQ expects revenue between $75 million and $95 million.

The United Nations has designated 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, celebrating 100 years since the initial development of quantum mechanics. A McKinsey research shows that the three core pillars of QT—quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing—could together generate up to $97 billion in revenue worldwide by 2035. Quantum computing will capture the bulk of that revenue, growing from $4 billion in revenue in 2024 to as much as $72 billion in 2035.