Seabed Showdown – Trillion-Dollar Treasure Hunt Ignites Underwater Cold War

The new energy war sinks to the ocean floor. US claims deep-sea mineral bonanza, risking international fury and uncharted environmental waters

Critical minerals have emerged as a frontline, or rather a fathoms deep issue in safeguarding global energy and economic security. The wave of recent export restrictions underscores the strategic urgency of strengthening the resilience and diversity of critical mineral supplies as the world moves towards a more electrified, renewables-rich energy system. With China having an overwhelming dominance of global critical minerals supply chain, either as a source or with its major refining capabilities, countries are turning to the depths of the ocean to hunt for rare earth elements.

The deep sea which contains billions of tonnes of potato-shaped rocks, called polymetallic nodules, rich in critical minerals like cobalt and rare earths elements, has emerged as a new frontier in the geopolitics for control of critical mineral sources.

Underwater Treasure

It is estimated that there are 21 billion tonnes of polymetallic nodules resting on the ocean floor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean, containing an estimated; 6 billion tonnes of manganese; 226 million tonnes of copper – about 25% of land-based reserves;94,000 tonnes of cobalt – about six times as much as current land-based reserves and, 100 times the 2019 global nickel production of approximately 270 million tonnes of nickel.

US Fires the Latest Salvo

The latest salvo, in this quest for the control of mineral resources lying beneath the bed of the oceans has been fired by the United States, in an Executive Order “Unleashing America’s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources,” issued on April 24, 2025, and the subsequent submission by The Metals Company USA on April 29 for commercial recovery of deep-sea minerals in the high seas under the U.S. Seabed Mining Code.

The executive order specifically targets the Clarion-Clipperton Zone between North America and Hawaii, which is abundantly filled with nickel, cobalt, copper, and rare earth minerals. The US is implementing this strategy through the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act for areas beyond national jurisdiction and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act for areas within US jurisdiction.

The Metals Company, a US and Canada-based deep-sea mining exploration firm, emerged as the most immediate beneficiary of the USexecutive order, with its shares rising approximately 40% following the announcement. The company has already conducted pilot operations and developed advanced nodule collection technology

Triggering Global Alarm

The International Seabed Authority immediately raised an alarm, over this order which it argues is about US authorities and companies operating beyond their national jurisdiction. The ISA is concerned that this executive order “becomes a matter of the rule of law within the global ocean governance framework known as UNCLOS (the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea); concerns made more severe by the fact that the recent permit request is for mining in the deep sea outside of the jurisdiction of the United States.”The issuance of this order is also surprising, according to the ISA, because for over 30 years the US has been a reliable observer, and significant contributor to the negotiations of the International Seabed Authority, actively providing technical expertise to each stage of the development of the ISA regulatory framework.”

China Sharply Critical

According to the BBC, the Chinese response, as expected, has been sharply critical of the US move. “The US authorization… violates international law and harms the overall interests of the international community,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said.

The US action, however, has been triggered by several countries, especially China imposing export restrictions on critical minerals. Amid rising supply concentration, an expanding number of export control measures on critical minerals have been introduced, particularly since 2023.

In December 2024, China restricted the export of gallium, germanium and antimony, key minerals for semiconductor production, to the United States. This was followed by further announcements in early 2025, including restrictions on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum and on seven heavy rare earth elements.

In February 2025, the DRCongo announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to curb falling prices. Currently, more than half of a broader group of energy-related minerals are subject to some form of export controls. These restrictions are not only increasing in number but also expanding in scope to cover not just raw and refined materials but also processing technologies, such as those for lithium and rare earth refining.

Breaching International Seabed Boundaries

Growing demand for minerals and corresponding concerns over geographical concentration of supply have led to increasing interest in marine mineral deposits. These deposits, found in the deep seabed lying at depths exceeding 200 metres, contain sizeable quantities of key minerals such as nickel, cobalt and copper, often at higher grades than terrestrial mineral reserves, according to a report published by the International Energy Agency.

However, the majority of deep-sea mineral resources lie in areas beyond national jurisdiction, referred to as “the Area”. The Area falls under the governance of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 agreement relating to its implementation.

Under this framework, the ISA is the organisation through which parties to UNCLOS organise and control mineral related activities in the Area. To date, the ISA has issued over 30 exploration contracts, covering more than 1.5 million square kilometres of the seabed. These permits are held by a mix of state entities, state-sponsored companies and private contractors.

An Underwater Mining Code in the Making

While exploration efforts have advanced significantly, including the collection of geological and environmental data, no commercial exploitation has yet occurred. The ISA is currently in the process of developing the regulations that will govern exploitation of these resources. These proposed regulations, which will form part of the Mining Code, aim to address issues such as environmental protection, financial terms, liability, compliance and benefit-sharing in contracts. Negotiations are taking place amid growing divergence among countries. As of April 2025, 32 states support a ban, moratorium or precautionary pause on deep-sea mining, citing the absence of a robust regulatory framework and insufficient scientific understanding of the environmental impacts of deep-sea mining.

Others are pushing for commercial extraction, emphasising the strategic importance of seabed minerals and the need to establish legal certainty for investors. At the first part of its 30th Annual Session in March 2025, the ISA Council completed a second reading of just over half of the draft exploitation regulations.

However, several politically and technically complex issues remain unresolved. These include: agreement on financial terms and a royalty regime; the definition and assessment of environmental harm; the role of regional environmental management plans; the structure and authority of compliance and enforcement mechanisms; and the finalisation of environmental standards and guidelines. As of now the geopolitical compass is pointing to a turbulent ocean floor in the coming monthsas countries wrestle to control critical mineral supply chains.