How Trump 2.0 Could Upend the Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

With geopolitical competition fiercer than ever, Donald Trump’s re-election could ignite a seismic shift in the global race for critical minerals – intensifying US efforts to wrest control of mineral supply chains from rivals like China and Russia.

Tariffs – taxes imposed on imported goods – have long been used as a tool of economic policy to shield Across every industry, from clean-tech to automobiles, mobile phones, medical equipment, defence, electronics manufacture, critical minerals are indispensable for the global economy. In 2023, lithium demand surged by 30%, primarily driven by the expansion of electric vehicles (EVs) and battery storage systems. By 2035, anticipated mine supply from announced projects is expected to meet only 50% of the global lithium requirements, indicating a substantial shortfall. Let’s look at some big numbers; approximately 600 kilograms of rare earth elements are required per megawatt of wind power capacity; a single EV battery can contain approximately 8 kilograms of lithium, 14 kilograms of cobalt, and 20 kilograms of nickel; Cobalt-60, a radioactive isotope of cobalt, is employed in cancer treatment through radiation therapy. No wonder that control over critical mineral sources and supply chains have become the latest geopolitical battleground.

Donald Trump’s re-election as US President could ignite a seismic shift in the global race for critical minerals, which are essential for technologies rangingfrom renewable energy to military applications. His administration from 2017 to 2021 saw sweeping policies aimed at reshaping the United States’ approach to resource security, including invoking the Defence Production Act for critical minerals and expanding domestic mining operations. Now, with geopolitical competition fiercer than ever, Trump’s return could intensify efforts to wrest control of mineral supply chains from rivals like China and Russia.

The urgency of this issue cannot be overstated. Critical minerals, including rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, underpin the transition to green energy, advanced technologies, and national defence systems. The control over these resources is no longer just an economic matter but a high-stakes geopolitical contest with implications for global security and the environment.

Trump’s Track Record on Critical Minerals

During his earlier tenure, Trump prioritized resource independence in response to the US’s heavy reliance on imports for critical minerals. By 2020, the US was importing over 80% of its rare earths from China, a vulnerability the Trump administration sought to address through executive orders and partnerships with allied nations.

Trump directed the Department of the Interior to identify critical minerals essential to national security, resulting in a list of 35 materials. In 2019, his administration launched the “Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals,” focusing on boosting domestic mining, recycling, and alternative sourcing.

One of Trump’s most contentious moves was the push for resource extraction in sensitive ecological zones. The administration sought to fast-track mining permits in Alaska and Minnesota, citing national security concerns, despite opposition from environmentalists. If re-elected, Trump is likely to double down on these policies, intensifying debates over the balance between economic security and environmental sustainability.

The Global Context: Escalating Competition

China: Dominance and Leverage

China holds a dominant position in the global production and processing of several critical minerals essential for various industries, including renewable energy, electronics, and defence. As of 2023, China’s share in the production of key critical minerals is as follows:

• Gallium: 98.18% of global production
• Magnesium: 88%
• Tungsten: 80.8%
• Rare Earth Elements: Approximately 70%

In addition to production, China also leads in the processing of these minerals, further consolidating its influence over global supply chains. For instance, China accounts for more than half of the world’s refining of aluminium, lithium, and cobalt, around 90% of rare earth metals and manganese processing, and 100% of natural graphite processing.

This concentration of production and processing capabilities underscores China’s significant control over critical mineral supply chains, which has substantial implications for global industries reliant on these materials. This control gives Beijing significant leverage over supply chains critical to the green transition and military technologies.

Recent measures, such as export restrictions on gallium and germanium in 2023, have signalled China’s willingness to weaponize its dominance. These actions could escalate further under a Trump presidency, as his administration is likely to pursue more aggressive decoupling from Chinese supply chains.

Russia: A Resource Giant Under Sanctions

Russia, despite its vast reserves of nickel, palladium, and uranium, has been constrained by Western sanctions. However, Moscow continues to use its mineral wealth as a geopolitical tool, strengthening ties with non-Western allies. Trump’s approach to Russia – potentially less confrontational than current US policy – could introduce complexities in how the US counters Russian influence in the critical minerals space.

European Union: Balancing Dependence and Autonomy

The EU remains heavily dependent on imports for critical minerals, with over 90% of its magnesium and 80% of its lithium coming from outside the bloc. The Critical Raw Materials Act of 2024 aims to reduce this dependency through recycling, domestic mining, and diversification. However, Trump’s potential trade policies – likely to emphasize “America First” strategies – could disrupt the EU’s efforts to secure supply chains through transatlantic partnerships.

Risks and the Green Transition

The race for critical minerals carries significant risks:

1. Supply Chain Fragmentation: Aggressive decoupling from China, a policy Trump championed during his earlier tenure, could exacerbate global supply chain bottlenecks. For instance, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that meeting global climate goals will require a sixfold increase in mineral demand by 2040.
2. Resource Nationalism: Trump’s return could embolden resource-rich nations to adopt protectionist policies. Countries like Indonesia, which controls 37% of the world’s nickel production, have already imposed export bans to encourage domestic processing.
3. Environmental Concerns: Increased mining activity in the US, potentially encouraged by Trump’s policies, risks exacerbating ecological damage. The push for domestic extraction could clash with global sustainability goals, particularly in sensitive regions like the Arctic.

Strategies for Control

If Trump follows his earlier playbook, his administration will likely pursue several strategies to consolidate control over critical minerals:

• Expanded Domestic Mining: By fast-tracking permits and easing regulations, the US could increase its output of rare earths, lithium, and other minerals. However, this could face resistance from environmental advocacy groups.
• Allied Partnerships: The US could deepen collaborations with allies like Australia and Canada, which are rich in lithium and nickel. Trump previously sought to strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) to counter China in the Indo-Pacific.
• Strategic Stockpiling: Trump’s administration expanded the National Defence Stockpile for critical minerals. A renewed focus on stockpiling could buffer supply chain disruptions.

Implications for Developing Countries

The geopolitical scramble for critical minerals is reshaping the global south. Resource-rich nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are key battlegrounds, with Chinese companies controlling nearly 70% of cobalt mining in the DRC. Trump’s policies could intensify US efforts to counter Chinese dominance in these regions, but this risks further entrenching exploitative practices and economic dependency.

A Crossroads Moment

As Trump prepares to reclaim the White House, the world faces a crossroads in critical mineral geopolitics. His likely policies – rooted in economic nationalism and supply chain decoupling – could intensify global competition, with significant implications for technological progress, environmental sustainability, and geopolitical stability. The stakes are high. In the battle for critical minerals, control over these resources will determine not just who leads the green transition but who wields economic and military power in the decades to come. The urgency to secure these minerals has never been greater, and Trump’s return to power could mark the beginning of a new, more contentious era in the global race for resource dominance.ates a more level playing field, reducing the need for unilateral tariffs while fostering collaboration.