40% of Global Employment to be Affected by AI & Widen Inequality – IMF
Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to significantly transform the global labour market, creating new job opportunities while simultaneously eliminating others, according to recent research from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, the ultimate impact of AI on human talent will depend on how widely these tools are available, and how ethically and fairly they are implemented, according to the IMF.
The organisation estimates that approximately 40% of global employment could be affected by AI. This projection is based on AI’s current ability to perform tasks previously considered exclusively human – such as translation, information summarisation,and even coding. These “cognitive” tasks, once the domain of human expertise, are now increasingly being automated. While the IMF highlights the potential for AI to replace jobs, the International Labor Organization (ILO) and other experts emphasise its augmentative role, suggesting that AI will enhance productivity without eliminating entire occupations.
Widening Digital Divide
While AI could boost GDP by 7% in advanced economies through efficiency gains, low-income countries may see minimal benefits due to slower adoption rates. The IMF warns this could widen global inequality, as poorer nations lack resources to invest in AI upskilling or infrastructure. Only 40% of workers in low-income countries have internet access, and unreliable electricity further restricts AI integration. This contrasts sharply with near-universal connectivity in high-income regions.
AI’s Double-Edged Sword: Efficiency vs. Originality
While AI promises increased efficiency and productivity, some experts caution against unbridled techno-optimism. Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey Raymond (2023) at MIT, found that while AI tools improve productivity across the board, the benefits are not evenly distributed. Their research suggests that AI primarily boosts the output of less experienced and lower-performing workers, narrowing the gap between them and top-tier talent. This “levelling effect” could potentially devalue human talent by diminishing the distinction between exceptional and average performance.
Moreover, reliance on AI tools may stifle human creativity and innovation. A study by Fabrizio Dell’Acqua et al. (2023) revealed that consultants using AI tools produced less original work compared to those who did not. While the quality of their output was higher, it lacked uniqueness, as the AI tools guided them towards standardised solutions.
Content Creators at Risk
The rise of AI also raises concerns about the rights and compensation of content creators. AI models are trained on vast datasets of human-created content, often without proper attribution or compensation. This has sparked legal battles, such as the lawsuit filed by The New York Times against OpenAI, alleging copyright infringement. Similarly, music industry giants like Universal Music Group and Sony Music Entertainment have sued AI startups for using copyrighted material to train music-generating AI systems. While AI developers often claim “fair use” protection, content creators argue that the scale and scope of AI’s use far exceed traditional fair use practices. This debate underscores the need for new laws and regulations to ensure the ethical and fair use of original work.
Opportunities for Growth and Development
Despite the potential downsides, AI also presents significant opportunities for growth and development. The IMF highlights AI’s ability to free humans from routine tasks, allowing them to focus on more complex and creative endeavours. In healthcare, for example, AI can automate administrative tasks, enabling healthcare professionals to dedicate more time to patient care. AI can also democratise access to education, particularly in developing economies. AI-powered platforms can provide personalised learning experiences, addressing individual learning gaps and fostering academic success.
Striking a Balance: Ethical Implementation is Key Ultimately, the impact of AI on the labour market will depend on how effectively we manage its trade-offs. Over-reliance on automation could lead to job displacement and diminished creativity, while ethical and fair implementation can unlock new opportunities and enhance human potential. As the IMF emphasises, policymakers must create conditions that allow AI to complement human abilities, address systemic barriers, and ensure that its benefits reach everyone. By striking this balance, we can harness the power of AI to build a future in which human ingenuity and technological progress work in harmony.